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Monday, September 13, 2004

Iraq-Stat, Part 4
Thomas F. Schaller

(Last week on this site, we reported the following:
First, that
the daily American fatality rate in Iraq thus far after Saddam Hussein’s capture is higher (2.0 per day) than it was prior to Hussein’s capture (1.7/day).

Second, that the daily Coalition casualty rate thus far in 2004 (18.0/day, through August 14) is more than twice what it was in 2003 (8.4/day).

Third, that the share of Coalition fatalities attributable to hostile fire or action is higher (82.5 percent) thus far in 2004 than it was in 2003 (68.9 percent).

Today, we add yet another statistic indicative of the greater difficulties suffered by American troops: the share of Coalition fatalities suffered by Americans is higher this year than last year.
In 2003, of the 575 total Coalition fatalities, 482 (83.8 percent) were Americans; through September 11, 2004 – the third anniversary of the terrorist attacks – the 525 Americans who have died thus far in 2004 represent 93.0 percent of the 564 Coalition fatalities this year.
Obviously, these trends are related. When insurgents step up their attacks on American soldiers, that raises the overall fatality rate, the share of fatalities that come from hostile action, and the share of Coalition personnel killed who are American.
But, no matter. The indisputable facts are these:
The fatality and casualty rates are higher now than a year ago, an increasing share of them are suffered by American than non-American Coalition troops, and they are increasing due to hostile fire.
In Bushworld, of course, this is evidence of progress and growing stability in Iraq

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